In France, as elsewhere in Europe, the fertility rate continues to decline and the average number of children desired is falling.
By: Charlotte Arce, Huffington Post
FAMILIES – French women and men are having fewer and fewer children , and it’s not going to get any better. This is, in essence, what a study by the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) revealed this Wednesday, July 9th, highlights. While Emmanuel Macron had called for a “demographic rearmament” of the country by the beginning of 2024 in anticipation of the aging of the French population, the opposite is happening, according to the work of the INED.
Not only did the fertility rate drop drastically between 2014 and 2024, from 2.0 children to 1.6 children per woman, but young adults are increasingly less inclined to want children or now want smaller families than before.
The average number of children desired is also in free fall: from 2.5 to 1.9 on average among women under 30. “Weaker intentions will probably translate in the future into a lower number of children had during one’s lifetime ,” says INED.
The two-child family remains the norm
Today, women born between 1998 and 2005 no longer necessarily imagine starting a family with two or more children. And while the two-child family norm remains dominant, its status is evolving: it is increasingly perceived as a maximum, not a minimum.
Thus, in 2024, 65% of 18-49 year-olds believe that two children is the ideal number, whereas only 47% thought the same thing in 1998. This is even more true among young women aged 18 to 24: the latter want to have 1.9 children on average, compared to 2 for those aged 25 to 34.
The desire to have a large family is also becoming increasingly rare. While 50% of French people aged 18 to 49 wanted “3 or more children” in 1998 , only 29% would be in the same situation in 2024. This trend is even more pronounced among 18-29 year-olds: only 10% of young men and 16% of young women want three children, while 20% and 14% want just one. And even if this wish does not ultimately correspond to reality, it suggests “a decrease in completed fertility for generations born after 1985” , says INED.
Fear of the future as a barrier to fertility
How can this decline in fertility intentions be explained? First, INED emphasizes that it is occurring in all social groups, “regardless of sex, age, country of birth, level of education, socio-professional category or standard of living .” But this trend is also linked to opinions. Thus, respondents who adhere to an egalitarian conception of the roles of women and men in society have lower fertility intentions.
French people also want to have fewer children because they fear the future. In addition to the unfavorable economic climate, they cite the climate crisis, the weakening of democracy, and, more generally, the unfavorable outlook for future generations as the main obstacles to their desire to have children. Thus, only 35% of people aged 25-39 who say they are “very worried about the outlook for future generations” “probably” or “definitely” intend to have a child (or an additional child), compared to 46% of those who say they are less worried.
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